BALL Corp (BALL)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• BALL delivered a clean beat: revenue $3.34B and comparable diluted EPS $0.90, both above consensus; revenue beat by ~$0.22B (~7%) and EPS beat by ~$0.03 (~3%) as volume grew 4.1% and EMEA/South America outperformed while North America margins faced price/mix and cost headwinds . EPS/Revenue consensus values from S&P Global.*
• Full‑year guidance raised: comparable diluted EPS growth increased to 12–15% (from 11–14% in Q1), supported by operational efficiencies and sustainability-led demand .
• Capital returns and balance sheet actions: $1.13B returned in 1H25; company remains “on track” to return ≥$1.5B in 2025; post‑quarter, BALL priced $750M 5.50% senior notes due 2033 and later closed sale of 41% interest in Saudi JV (retaining 10%) to streamline the portfolio .
• Cash flow caution: 1H25 free cash flow was -$510M (working capital drag), partially offset by adjusted FCF -$491M; leverage 3.40x and interest coverage 6.99x remain manageable; management reiterated tariff impacts are “manageable” amid macro uncertainty .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Broad-based volume growth and beats: global shipments +4.1%; comparable EPS $0.90 and sales $3.34B exceeded expectations . CEO: “Our robust financial position, leaner operating model, and focused growth strategy enabled us to achieve higher volume and increase our full‑year guidance...” .
• EMEA and South America strength: EMEA comparable operating earnings rose to $129M on $1.05B sales; South America rose to $51M on $477M sales, driven by higher segment volume and price/mix .
• Shareholder returns and strategic portfolio: $1.13B returned in 1H25; post‑quarter actions included $750M notes and the Saudi JV stake sale to deepen ORG partnership and maintain strategic flexibility (retain 10% post‑deconsolidation) . CFO: “We expect to return at least $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025... generate robust free cash flow” .

What Went Wrong

• North America margin pressure: comparable operating earnings decreased to $208M despite sales rising to $1.61B, reflecting adverse price/mix and higher costs (volumes mid‑single digit up) .
• Cash flow/working capital drag: 1H25 operating cash flow -$333M with changes in working capital -$838M; free cash flow -$510M; adjusted FCF -$491M .
• Higher interest expense and costs: interest expense $81M in Q2 (vs $68M in Q2’24), and continued non‑comparable items (facility closures, cups transaction) weighing on reported results despite underlying comparable strength .

Financial Results

Core Financials vs Prior Periods

Actual vs Consensus (Q2 2025)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Margins (latest two quarters)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Breakdown (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

KPIs

Guidance Changes

Post‑quarter balance sheet actions (not formal guidance):

• Priced $750M 5.50% Senior Notes due 2033; proceeds to repay revolvers and for general corporate purposes .
• Closed sale of 41% interest in Saudi JV; deconsolidated entity and retained 10% stake to focus portfolio and EVA expansion .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: Q2 2025 transcript retrieval was not available due to a database inconsistency; themes below reflect management’s published commentary and 8‑K/press releases .

Management Commentary

• CEO Fisher: “Our robust financial position, leaner operating model, and focused growth strategy enabled us to achieve higher volume and increase our full‑year guidance for comparable diluted earnings per share growth to 12–15%.”
• CFO Rabbitt: “We expect to return at least $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, driven by our proven ability to generate robust free cash flow.”
• CEO Fisher: “Supported by the strength of the Ball Business System, our best‑in‑class global footprint, and the dedication of our talented employees, we are strongly positioned to achieve our goals and create lasting value in 2025 and beyond.”
• Policy stance: “We continue to view the direct impact from announced tariffs as manageable... actively working with our customers to mitigate the effects of volatility in aluminum premium prices.”

Q&A Highlights

• The Q2 2025 earnings call transcript could not be retrieved due to a tool/database inconsistency. We will update Q&A highlights (themes, guidance clarifications, tone changes) once the transcript is accessible .

Estimates Context

• Results vs consensus: Revenue $3.338B vs $3.115B*; comparable diluted EPS $0.90 vs $0.872*—both beats, driven by higher shipments and stronger EMEA/SA price/mix; NA margins constrained by costs and price/mix. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
• Potential estimate revisions: Upward bias to FY EPS growth (guidance raised to 12–15%) and EMEA/South America segment profitability; NA margin trajectory likely scrutinized given cost and mix pressures .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Beat and raise quarter: strong volume and segment mix underpinning a higher FY EPS growth range (12–15%)—a positive estimate‑revision setup .
• Watch North America margins: sales grew but comparable operating earnings fell; cost/mix normalization is a key swing factor for multi‑quarter margin recovery .
• EMEA and South America are carrying the load: continued volume/pricing strength supports consolidated earnings resilience even with NA pressures .
• Capital allocation remains assertive: $1.13B returned YTD and ≥$1.5B targeted for FY; notes issuance and JV portfolio streamlining provide flexibility .
• Near‑term trading: “beat‑and‑raise” plus capital return cadence can support shares; monitor working capital unwind given 1H cash flow drag (-$510M FCF) .
• Medium‑term thesis: sustainability‑led demand and Ball Business System efficiencies, alongside focused portfolio and disciplined leverage (3.40x), support EPS compounding .
• Risk checks: tariff/macro volatility and aluminum premiums remain watch items; management views direct impacts as manageable and is actively mitigating .